Consider the sequence $u_n=n^a+p_n$, where $a$ is a real constant and $p_n$ is the $n$th prime.
Write down the terms in $u_n$ increasing from left to right. From each term, draw a line segment connecting it to its numerically closer neighbor, choosing the lower in case of a tie, thus forming clusters. Here is an example with $a=1$.
$\color{red}{3-5-8-11} \qquad \color{blue}{16-19} \qquad \color{brown}{24-27-32} \qquad \color{green}{39-42}\qquad \color{orange}{49-54-57-62-69} \qquad \color{purple}{76-79} \qquad \cdots$
The cluster sizes are $4,2,3,2,5,3,\dots$.
Is the following conjecture true:
Conjecture: The average cluster size is $3$ if $a\le 2$, and infinity if $a>2$.
My conjecture is based on numerical investigation with Excel, using the first $10^6$ primes. My conjecture can be expressed more precisely as follows. For a given value of $a$, let $f(a,c)$ be the arithmetic mean of the sizes of the first $c$ clusters. My conjecture is that, as $c\to\infty$, $f(a,c)$ approaches $3$ if $a\le 2$, and $f(a,c)$ approaches infinity if $a>2$.
Connection with Poisson distribution
In a $1D$ Poisson process, the probability that a point is its nearest neighbor's nearest neighbor, is $p=2/3$, as shown here, so the average cluster size is $2/p=3$, as shown here. Coming back to this question, I guess that $u_n$ resembles a $1D$ Poisson process in some critical way if $a\le 2$.
This question was inspired by the question linked to above.