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There are two random variables $A$ and $B$ with probability distributions given by, $$ \operatorname{Pr}(A=n)=\operatorname{Pr}(B=n)=p(1-p)^{n-1}, \quad 0<p<1, n=1,2, \ldots $$ Define the random variable $C$ to be $\max\left(A,B\right)$. I need to find;

  1. Average value of $C$
  2. Average value of $C$ compared to $A$ and $B$ in the limit $p \ll 1$?

Here's what I have so far,

$$\operatorname{Pr}(C=n)=2 \left( p(1-p)^{n-1} \right)\left(\sum_m^{n-1}p(1-p)^{m-1}\right)+\left( p(1-p)^{n-1} \right)\left( p(1-p)^{n-1} \right)$$

The above expression gives us the probability distribution of $C$.

The first term correspond to the probabilities of $A$ (or $B$) being equal to $n$ and $B$ (or $A$) less than $n$. The factor of $2$ corresponds to the choice of $A$ or $B$

The second term is the probability to get both $A$ and $B$ equal to $n$.

Thus average value of $C$ is equal to, $$\sum_n n \operatorname{Pr}(C=n)=\frac{2 p-3}{(p-2) p}$$

Neglecting $p^2$ term in the limit $p\ll 1$, this becomes $\frac{3}{2p}-1$

Average value of $A$ or $B$ is equal to, $$\sum_n n \operatorname{Pr}(A=n)=\frac{1}{p}$$

I calculated all of this using Mathematica.

Is my approach correct?

K.defaoite
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Dotman
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  • Notice that $A$ and $B$ have geometric distributions and what you ask is related to the maximum of geometric random variables. This has been asked before in a more general context. See this question https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/26167/expectation-of-the-maximum-of-i-i-d-geometric-random-variables – bluemaster Sep 22 '22 at 10:27
  • Good question! Tip: use \ll instead of <<. – K.defaoite Sep 23 '22 at 10:48
  • Your result $\frac{2 p-3}{(p-2) p}$ is correct, as far as I can see. You can use the formulas in https://math.stackexchange.com/a/26175/42969 from the referenced thread, with $n=2$. A small error in the asymptotic: $\frac{2 p-3}{(p-2) p} \sim \frac{3}{2p} - \frac 14$ for $p \to 0$. – Martin R Sep 24 '22 at 01:51
  • How did you reach the asymptotic value? @MartinR – Dotman Sep 24 '22 at 13:24
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    @Dotman: $\frac{2 p-3}{(p-2) p} = \frac{3-2p}{2p} \cdot \frac{1}{1-p/2} = (\frac{3}{2p} -1) \cdot (1 + \frac p2 + \frac{p^2}{4} + \cdots) $. Now multiply the first terms. – Martin R Sep 24 '22 at 15:04

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