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Does $E[X] \geq E[Y]$ imply $E[\max(a, X)] \geq E[\max(a, Y)]$ for nonnegative random variables $X$ and $Y$ and a constant $a >0$?

Here is what I have tried: We know $E[\max(a, X)] \geq E[X]$ and similar for $Y$. This says that $E[X]$ and $E[Y]$ are lower bounds for the respective $\max()$ functions. Therefore $\cdots$.

(This approach can be used to show that $E[X] \geq E[Y]$ implies $E[\max(a, X)] \geq E[\min(a, Y)]$ (note "min"), for example.)

If the statement is true, I think we can use the convexity of the $\max()$ function here, or maybe Markov's inequality.

Max
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2 Answers2

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Try for example

  • $a=3$,
  • $X=2$ with probability $1$,
  • $Y=1$ with probability $0.9$ and $Y=4$ with probability $0.1$

Then

  • $E[X]=2>1.3=E[Y]$,
  • $E[\max(a,X)]=3 < 3.1= E[\max(a,Y)] $
Henry
  • 157,058
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The condition $\mathbb E[\max(a,X)] \geq \mathbb E[\max(a,Y)]$ for all $a \geq 0 $ and non-negative random variables $X,Y$ is much stronger than the condition $\mathbb E[X] \geq \mathbb E[Y]$ and has deeper meaning. Indeed, it is the root of a stochastic order : a way of comparing random variables , often used in industrial and estimation purposes (modelling appliance lifetimes, risk occurrences etc.).

Indeed, the inequality $\mathbb E[\max(a,X)] \geq \mathbb E[\max(a,Y)]$ is , upon subtraction of $a$ from each side, equivalent to the statement that $\mathbb E[(X-a)_{+}] \geq \mathbb E[(Y-a)_{+}]$ for all $a \geq 0$, where $b_+ = \max(b,0)$. Note that if $a$ is negative then the inequality is true because $\mathbb E[X] \geq \mathbb E[Y]$ is true from setting $a=0$. Therefore, for all $a \in \mathbb R$, it is true that $$\mathbb E[(X-a)_{+}] \geq \mathbb E[(Y-a)_{+}]$$

In the theory of comparison of random variables, this particular inequality can be extended, by density, to the following :$$ \mathbb E[\phi(X)] \geq \mathbb E[\phi(Y)] $$ for all increasing convex functions $\phi$ (and not just $\phi(x) = x$, which is what would yield $\mathbb E[X] \geq \mathbb E[Y]$).

If this occurs, we say that $X$ dominates $Y$ in the increasing convex order, and write it as $X \geq_{icx} Y$. It's clear that this is far stronger than the mere condition $\mathbb E[X] \geq \mathbb E[Y]$ , when I discuss the equivalent condition :

$X \geq_{icx} Y$ if and only if , for all $x \in \mathbb R$, $$ \int_x^\infty \mathbb P[X > t] dt \geq \int_x^\infty \mathbb P[Y>t] dt \tag{continuous} $$ $$ \sum_{t \geq x} \mathbb P(X > t) \geq \sum_{t \geq x} \mathbb P(Y > t) \tag{discrete} $$

Therefore, domination in the increasing convex order is equivalent to an inequality of the distributions functions/pmfs of the relevant random variables : something that is clearly far, far stronger than just $\mathbb E[X] \geq \mathbb E[Y]$.

One can easily construct a counterexample now using discrete random variables. Let's take $X$ constant , say $X=1$ with probability $1$ : this is a simple case, given that the statements have been seen to be very far apart so we expect an elementary counterexample.

Allow $Y$ to take a value larger than $1$, like say $Y = 2$ with probability $0.1$. This ensures that $\mathbb P(Y>1.5) > 0 = P(X>1)$, for example, so $a=1.5$ works and ensures that $X \not \geq_{icx} Y$ with $x=1.5$ in the equivalent condition above. Then one can finish by allowing $Y$ to take a small enough value so that $\mathbb E[Y] \leq \mathbb E[X]$, say $Y = 0.1$ with probability $0.9$. Thus $\mathbb E[X] \geq \mathbb E[Y]$ but $\mathbb E[\max(X,1.5)] \not \geq \mathbb E[\max(Y,1.5)]$.

Nevertheless, while the answer may be easy, it is nice to see the connection with a topic that is not often discussed at a first level in probability : stochastic orders. More on this can be found in books such as "Stochastic Orders" by Shaked and Shanthikumar.


Approximation of Increasing Convex Functions

I'll present only brief details : I found this material in "Convex functions and their applications" by Nicolaescu and Persson. We'll call a function $f: [a,b] \to \mathbb R$ a piecewise affine function, if there exist $a=x_0 < x_1<\ldots < x_n = b$ such that restricted to each $[x_i,x_{i+1}]$, the graph of $f$ is linear.

Lemma (Adapted from lemma 1.9.1) : Every increasing convex function $f : [a,b] \to \mathbb R$ is the pointwise limit of a sequence of piecewise linear increasing convex functions.

Proof : Consider $f_n(x)=y$ where $(x,y)$ is the unique point lying on the graph formed by joining consecutive points of the form $\left(\frac{(n-k)a+kb}{n}, f\left(\frac{(n-k)a+kb}{n}\right)\right) , 0 \leq k \leq n$ by straight lines. Then, this $f_n$ is convex, increasing and piecewise linear : it will also converge pointwise, as one can clearly see from continuity of $f$.

Lemma(Adapted from Lemma 1.9.2) : Let $f : [a,b] \to \mathbb R$ be a piecewise affine increasing convex function with the piece endpoints described by $a=x_0 <x_1 < \ldots < x_n = b$. Then, for suitable $\alpha, c_i \geq 0$ and $\beta$ real, $$ f(x) = \alpha x + \beta + \sum_{i=1}^n c_i (x-x_i)_+ $$ on $[a,b]$.

Proof : Let $\alpha , \beta$ be chosen such that $\alpha x + \beta$ is the affine function corresponding to the piece on $[x_0,x_1]$. Note that $\alpha \geq 0$ as $f(x_1) \geq f(x_0)$ so the line will have a non-negative slope. Then , $f(x) - (\alpha x + \beta)$ is an increasing convex function that vanishes on $[x_0,x_1]$. Now, think about the function $f(x) - (\alpha x + \beta)$ on $[x_1,x_2]$. At $x_1$, it's equal to $0$. Let's say that it's equal to some $D$ at $x_2$. Then the slope of this function from $x_1$ to $x_2$ is constant, and it rises by $D$. Therefore, it follows that the slope is $C_1 = \frac{D}{x_2-x_1}$, and it follows that on $[x_0,x_2]$, $f(x) = (\alpha x + \beta) + c_1 (x-x_1)_+$. By now considering this function on $[x_2,x_3]$ and getting $c_2$, we can get all the $c_i$ : which are non-negative because on each occasion there is a rise by some $D_k \geq 0$ so the ratio representing $c_k$ is positive.

Theorem : Every increasing convex function $g$ is the limit of a sequence of piecewise linear functions , extended suitably by straight lines to be piecewise linear on $\mathbb R$.

Proof : Let $g_n$ be the restriction of $g$ to $[-n,n]$ and let $h_{n^2}$ be the $n^2$th iteration of the piecewise linear approximation considered in the first lemma, extended by straight lines of appropriate slope in order to retain continuity and their increasing nature on $\mathbb R$. One can extend the previous lemma to include $x_{-1} = -\infty, x_{l+1} = +\infty$ in the partition of $h_{n^2}$ and see that $h_n^2$ is still of the form described.


It follows that every increasing convex function is a limit of a non-negative linear combination of functions of the form $(x-a)_+$ and the function $x$ (along with a constant $\beta$, but that can be ignored as we see later).

However, it's quite clear that if $\mathbb E[(X-a)_+] \geq \mathbb E[(Y-a)_+]$ for all $a \in \mathbb R$ and $\mathbb E[X] \geq \mathbb E[Y]$, then $\mathbb E[f(x)] \geq \mathbb E[f(Y)]$ for every piecewise affine function $f$ on $\mathbb R$. Indeed, the $\beta$ cancels out, and the rest of the domination carries over because $\alpha$ and each of the $c_i$ are non-negative.

Now, using an appropriate limit theorem such as the $DCT$, one sees that $\mathbb E[\phi(X)] \geq \mathbb E[\phi(Y)]$ for every $\phi$ increasing convex on $\mathbb R$.

  • Great answer! Thanks! – Anthony Jan 18 '22 at 12:28
  • You are welcome, @Anthony! – Sarvesh Ravichandran Iyer Jan 18 '22 at 12:32
  • I really appreciate this answer, because whereas a mere counterexample does technically answer my question, this helps me understand where my intuition went wrong. – Max Jan 18 '22 at 23:36
  • Hi @Max , good to have been of help. It is important to distinguish how far the two assumptions actually are, because the further apart they are, the easier the counterexample one can expect. That ,and the nice connection between the max inequality and a stochastic order, meant that this answer wrote itself. – Sarvesh Ravichandran Iyer Jan 19 '22 at 05:04
  • I have had some more time to think about this, and I am wondering if you can direct me to some more information about why $E[X_+] \geq E[Y_+]$ implies $E[\phi(X)] \geq E[\phi(Y)]$ for increasing, convex $\phi(\cdot)$. Is this understanding correct? Where can I read a proof? I see "convex order" mentioned on this Wiki page but the details are scant. Thank you. – Max Jan 21 '22 at 06:05
  • @Max Thank you for asking. I don't really have any decent reference for this fact : so it is only fair that I create a proof out of scratch. I will edit my answer to do that. I may need details from other questions, but I will try to make sure that it is self-contained. – Sarvesh Ravichandran Iyer Jan 21 '22 at 11:51