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I know this question was already answered on here, but I feel I am missing something fundamental in the reasoning in this problem. We state it as follows:

"A fair coin is tossed repeatedly. Show that the probability that a heads eventually turns up is one."

From what I understand about probability so far, to calculate the probability we take the set of all events where a heads shows up, and divide it by the size of the outcome space. Here I would think the sample space is the set of all finite sequences of heads and tails (which is clearly infinite).

Now in the solution listed here: Probability that a head eventually turns up (From Grimmett and Stirzaker)

they assume the sample space is $\Omega = \{H, TH, TTH, TTTH, ...\}$ and then they define $A_i$ to be the event that $H$ turns up on the $i$-th toss.

I have two confusions with this setup:

(1) Why do they assume the sample space is just the set of all coin tosses wherein a head appears?

(2) If our sample space is infinite, how can we calculate $\mathbb{P}(A_i) = \frac{1}{2^i}$? Why can we just restrict the probability measure to finite subset of the $\sigma$-algebra when making calculations?

Thank you for your time

  • You could stop tossing the coin once a head shows up. Assume the coin tosses are independent. – user10354138 Sep 07 '21 at 01:54
  • But we have theoretically infinite number of tosses, why can we just restrict the measure to a finite set like this? – AnotherPerson Sep 07 '21 at 02:02
  • You want to check out the second answer in the question you linked – Severin Schraven Sep 07 '21 at 02:23
  • That answer was downvoted once. Is it correct? – AnotherPerson Sep 07 '21 at 02:24
  • Are you clear on the difference between countably infinite and uncountably infinite? (1) What is the set of all coin tosses wherein a head does not appear? How does the probability of the set mesh with the objective "Show that the probability that a heads eventually turns up is one?" (2) Which subset is finite? – Gwendolyn Anderson Sep 07 '21 at 04:06

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