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Assume that $S_t$ is an Itô-process with dynamics

$dS_t=\mu(S_t,t)dt+\sigma(S_t,t)dB_t,$

where $\mu,\sigma$ are jointly Borel measurable and are such that $|\mu(x,t)|+|\sigma(x,t)|\le K(1+|x|)$, $|\mu(x,t)-\mu(y,t)|+|\sigma(x,t)-\sigma(y,t)|\le D|x-y|$.

Let $f$ be a borel function such that $E[|f(S_T)]]<\infty$.

Let $t \le T$.

Define $S^{x,t}$, for $s\ge t$ as

$S^{x,t}_s=x+\int_t^s\mu(S^{x,t}_{t'},t')dt'+\int_t^s \sigma(S^{x,t}_{t'},t')dB_{t'}$.

Then I want to show that

$$E[f(S_T)|\mathcal{F}_t]=E[f(S^{x,t}_T)]_{x=S_t}.$$

I think I can assume that $S_t$ is a Markov process?, so it suffices to show that

$$E[f(S_T)|\sigma(S_t)]=E[f(S^{x,t}_T)]_{x=S_t}?$$

There are two things I need to check then. If we define $g(x)=E[f(S^{x,t}_T)]$, then we need that

$$E(|g(S_t)|)<\infty?$$

Do you see how to do that?

The other thing we need to check is that for a borel set $B \in \mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R})$ we have

$$E[f(S_T(\omega))\cdot 1_{S_t^{-1}(B)}(\omega)]=E[g(S_t(\omega))\cdot 1_{S_t^{-1}(B)}(\omega)].$$

Do you see how to prove this condition?

Update:

I see that we may not need to show that $E(|g(S_t)|)<\infty$. If we are able to prove the last statement for bounded $f$ first. Then we can use $f=f^+-f^-$ and further look at $f_m=\min(f^+,m)$ and then $E[f^+(S_t(\omega))\cdot 1_{S_t^{-1}(B)}(\omega)]=E[g(S_t(\omega))\cdot 1_{S_t^{-1}(B)}(\omega)]$ with the monotone convergence theorem(here $g$ is defined using $f^+$, and we define $g_m$ likewise.)

So it remains to prove that $$E[f(S_T(\omega))\cdot 1_{S_t^{-1}(B)}(\omega)]=E[g(S_t(\omega))\cdot 1_{S_t^{-1}(B)}(\omega)]$$ for positive and bounded $f$? Do you see how to do that?

Update 2:

We may also need to assume that there exist a positive process $R_t$ such that $S_t\cdot R_t$ is a martingale. Here $R_t$ is the discounting from finance.

user394334
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  • I am not really sure, but is this not just applying this [https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/73353/conditional-expectation-of-function-of-two-rvs-one-measurable-one-independent] to $S_T-S_t, S_t$ ? – a_student Apr 28 '21 at 13:15
  • @a_student Do we have that $S_T-S_t$ is independent of $S_t$, that seems to be a requirement of what you posted? – user394334 Apr 28 '21 at 13:24
  • you are right, I got confused, by the martingale property we only have $\mathbb{E}[S_T-St|\mathcal{F}_t] = 0$, but I guess this is not sufficient to use the same line of reasoning as in the link – a_student Apr 28 '21 at 13:49

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