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The Third Axiom of Probability has been a well-accepted axiom yet there seems to be a nice proof of it. I couldn't trace an implicit assumption of this axiom anywhere in the proof. I'll write a sketch of the proof; please tell me if it could be replaced by it.

Thm : Let $\{E_1, E_2, \cdots\}$ be mutually exclusive events of some countable set $\Omega$ such that $P(\Omega) = 1$. Then $P(E) = \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} P(E_i)$.

Proof : The case when $E$ is finite can be proven easily (from definition) and hence is left out. (Edit : Added as comment #1) When $E$ is countable, choose some $\epsilon > 0$. Denote $\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} P(E_i)$ by $\text{P}$ and $F_n = \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{n} P(E_i)$.

Observe that we can get some $n$ in $\mathbb{N}$ such that $|P - F_n| \leq \epsilon$ (which basically follows from the monotone convergence thm and def. of convergence). Additionally, we can yield some (finite set) $E^{*}_i \subseteq E_i$ for each $1 \leq i \leq n$ so that $P(E_i) \leq P(E^{*}_i) + \epsilon$.

Obviously $\displaystyle\bigcup_{i=1}^{n} E_i^{*} \subseteq E$ and so by Boole's inequality implies $P\left(\displaystyle\bigcup_{i=1}^{n} E_i^{*}\right) \leq P(E)$. From all these above, it follows that : $$\text{P} \leq F_n + \epsilon \leq P\left(\displaystyle\bigcup_{i=1}^{n} E_i\right) + \epsilon \leq \displaystyle\bigcup_{i=1}^{n} P(E_i) + \epsilon \leq \bigcup_{i=1}^{n} P(E_i^*) + (n+1)\epsilon \leq P(E) + \epsilon'$$.

This shows that $\text{P} = \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} P(E_i) \leq P(E)$. We can also show the reverse to eventually conclude the equality of $\text{P}$ and $P(E)$. (I'm not attaching the proof, unless asked in comments to keep the size of the post decent)


Why is it an axiom and not a theorem then?

I would like to add that I have no background in measure theory and hence is not defined on a measure theoretic space in particular.

EDIT (as suggested by @Bungo in comments) : Please note that the $\Omega$ is assumed to be countable. I'm trying to see if setting $P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B)$ as the axiom ($A \cap B = \phi; A,B \subseteq \Omega$) proves both the finite and the infinite case.

  • Proof of the finite case : If $E = E_1 \cup E_2 \cup \cdots \cup E_n$ (where each is mutually disjoint from one another), then by definition if $A$ and $B$ are disjoint, $\displaystyle\sum_{\omega \in A\cup B} P(\omega) = \sum_{\omega \in A}P(\omega) + \sum_{\omega \in B}P(\omega)$ gives $P(E) = P(E_1) + \cdots + P(E_n)$ by induction. – oldsailorpopoye Feb 14 '20 at 19:05
  • Can't the axiom simply be if $A$ and $B$ are disjoint, $\displaystyle\sum_{\omega \in A\cup B} P(\omega) = \sum_{\omega \in A}P(\omega) + \sum_{\omega \in B}P(\omega)$? It seems like this can prove both the finite and the infinite case eventually. – oldsailorpopoye Feb 14 '20 at 19:06
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    Your "proof" of the finite case implicitly assumes that $P(E) = \sum_{\omega \in E}P(\omega)$. But how would this follow from the first two axioms ($P(E) \geq 0$ and $P(\Omega) = 1$)? Moreover, it's not even true in general, e.g. if $E$ is uncountably infinite. –  Feb 14 '20 at 19:11
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  • You baselessly assume convergence. 2. Your final line says $P\le P(E)+(n+1)\varepsilon$, it seems that the $n$ depends on the $\varepsilon$; so you can't conclude much from that.
  • – Thorgott Feb 14 '20 at 19:15
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    To see that any attempt to "prove" this axiom is fruitless, consider the following probability "distribution", which satisfies axioms 1 and 2 but not 3, therefore you can't prove 3 from 1 and 2. Let $\Omega = {a, b}$, and let $P(\emptyset) = P({a}) = P({b}) = P(\Omega) = 1$. –  Feb 14 '20 at 19:20
  • @Bungo : For the finite case when I say $P(E) = \sum_{\omega \in E} P(\omega)$, I did state something in comments #1 and #2. – oldsailorpopoye Feb 14 '20 at 19:24
  • @Thorgott Right. Call it $n_\epsilon$ in that case and set $\epsilon' = (n+1)\epsilon$ to yield the result for $n_{\epsilon '}$. Then since it works for any $\epsilon > 0$, we have the inequation $\text{P} \leq P(E)$. – oldsailorpopoye Feb 14 '20 at 19:28
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    @charlesh Why do you assume that for disjoint $A,B$ we have $P(A \cup B) = \sum_{\omega \in A \cup B} P(\omega)$? This does not follow in any way from the first two axioms. Moreover, even assuming all three axioms, it is not true if $A \cup B$ is uncountable or if any of the singletons ${\omega} \subseteq A \cup B$ are not measurable. –  Feb 14 '20 at 19:32
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    @charlesh That does not resolve the issue as far as I can tell. The point is that there is no guarantee that $(n_{\varepsilon}+1)\varepsilon$ gets arbitrarily small just because $\varepsilon$ does. – Thorgott Feb 14 '20 at 19:38
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    This won’t answer your question nor explain why your theorem will or will not work, but do note that that countable additivity of the probability measure can be proven if we assume what some authors call left continuity of measures as the third axiom instead: if $A_n \supset A_{n+1}$ is a decreasing sequence of events with $\cap A_n =\emptyset$ then $P(A_n)\to 0$ as $n\to \infty$. In fact one can prove $P$ is left continuous if and only if $P$ is countably additive. For context, Kolmogorov took left continuity as an axiom and proved countable additivity when he axiomatized prob. theory. – Nap D. Lover Feb 14 '20 at 20:04
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    @Bungo I'm taking the case of $A,B$ as the axiom. And I'm talking only of countable spaces. I've added this to the question as EDIT. – oldsailorpopoye Feb 14 '20 at 21:11
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    So you want to prove countable additivity assuming finite additivity? Your question didn't make this clear. This is also not possible, even assuming a countable space. See e.g. https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/204842/example-for-fintely-additive-but-not-countably-additive-probability-measure and https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/485443/finitely-additive-not-countably-additive-on-bbb-n –  Feb 14 '20 at 21:16
  • I'll have a look into it (the link). Before that, can anyone tell me why this proof won't do the job? And yes, Bungo. I did state the "theorem" I'm trying to prove. – oldsailorpopoye Feb 14 '20 at 21:23
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    Yes, but you didn't say that you were starting with finite additivity as an axiom. Instead you said "Proof : The case when is finite can be proven easily (from definition)" [emphasis added] and supplied an invalid proof in the comments. This led to my initial comments: the finite case does not follow from the other axioms. I would recommend editing the question to state at the beginning exactly what you are assuming vs. proving. –  Feb 14 '20 at 21:32
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    @Bungo I agree. Appreciate your help! – oldsailorpopoye Feb 15 '20 at 14:44