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Does Bayes' formula say the probability of the cause given that something else is occurring? Is that the difference between it and conditional probability?

Can someone put a small question concerning Bayes' formula and conditional probability at the same time?

N. F. Taussig
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sara fkh
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    The Man's name was Thomas Bayes, not Baye. So say Bayes's formula or Bayes' formula. – GEdgar Nov 12 '19 at 14:20
  • ok sorry. but can you answer plz – sara fkh Nov 12 '19 at 14:20
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    Correlation does not imply causation. Let's say it again together this time... correlation does not imply causation. Bayes' theorem talks about conditional probabilities, such as $Pr(A\mid B)$ and gives us a way to rewrite this in terms of $Pr(B\mid A)$ and other terms. We do not restrict ourselves to talking about the cases where $A$ somehow "causes" $B$ – JMoravitz Nov 12 '19 at 14:21
  • can u give me a simple example of 2 parts the first asks 1) using Bayes' formula and 2) using conditional prob – sara fkh Nov 12 '19 at 14:23
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    Now... we have as one of the ways of defining conditional probability that $Pr(A\mid B) = \dfrac{Pr(A\cap B)}{Pr(B)}$, or equivalently by rearranging that $Pr(A\cap B) = Pr(A\mid B)Pr(B)$. Doing the same but reversing the roles of $A$ and $B$ we also have $Pr(A\cap B) = Pr(B\mid A)Pr(A)$. Setting these equal to one another and then dividing, we arrive at the familiar $Pr(A\mid B) = \dfrac{Pr(B\mid A)Pr(A)}{Pr(B)}$ – JMoravitz Nov 12 '19 at 14:24
  • As for examples, you may want to read from stats.stackexchange What is Bayes' theorem all about and problems like this one. – JMoravitz Nov 12 '19 at 14:26

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