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Here is the famous blue eyed islanders puzzle and here is the traditional solution. It has been also discussed here in StackExchange.

What I don't understand is how do we know that for $n$ blu-eyed islanders it is impossible that any islander will leave the island before $n$ days. While it seems obvious and intuitive when we consider $n=2$ or even $n=3$ we can't rely on intuition for $n=100$. The inductive proof we are given assumes that we are in day $n-1$ with no islander leaving the island and go to the conclusion that the $n$ blue eyed islanders will all leave on day $n$. But what if there is a number $k$ such that everyone leaves on day $k-2$ or $k-1$? How can we exclude this possibility?

Marco Disce
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  • "But what if there is a number k such that everyone leaves on day k−2 or k−1? How can we exclude this possibility?" There must be a reason for each person leaving at day $k$, a reason that can be traced back logically. You have a question only when you have a reason. (And i have an answer only when i show that there is no reason to do this. I am showing this by using induction as in the linked answers.) – dan_fulea Aug 16 '19 at 22:40
  • Of course they would leave for a reason, but how can we know that they will not have a reason until day $n$? – Marco Disce Aug 16 '19 at 22:51
  • "Of course they would leave for a reason, but how can we know that they will not have a reason until day n?" Just make that part of the Proposition. P(n) = no islander will have any reason to leave prior to day n and on day n all islanders will leave. – fleablood Aug 17 '19 at 01:11
  • @fleablood how do you prove that if 99 islanders have no reason to leave before day 99 then 100 islanders have no reason to leave during the days 1-99? The additional information about the 99 islanders case can help if you are looking for a reason to leave, not if you are trying to prove that you have no reason – Marco Disce Aug 18 '19 at 16:34
  • By induction. Prove that if you have two islanders that they will have no reason to leave before day 2 and they will all leave on day to. Then assume that if you have $n$ islanders who will no reason to leave before day $n-1$ and they will all leave on day $n$, that if you have $n+1$ islanders that they will have no reason to leave before day $n$ and they will all leave on day $n+1$. ... If $n$ islanders will have no reason to leave on $n-1$ or sooner adding any extra islander wont make any diffference for days up to $n-1$. And now they won't leave on day $n$. – fleablood Aug 18 '19 at 16:55
  • "If n islanders will have no reason to leave on n−1 or sooner adding any extra islander wont make any diffference for days up to n−1" this doesn't seem obvious to me: adding an extra islander changes the information available to anyone, why should it be indifferent? – Marco Disce Aug 18 '19 at 17:10

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Notice that the inductive step, like any inductive proof, assumes that 'The statement holds for $k$' .... i.e. (in this case) that with $k$ blue-eyed islanders, none of them leaves before day $k$, but they do all leave on day $k$. So, at this point we indeed don't know that it is true, but rather we just assume that it is true, and see what follows. Well, what follows is that with $k+1$ blue-eyed islanders, they all leave on day $k+1$. That is, we can show that if $k$ blue-eyed islanders all leave on day $k$, then $k+1$ blue-eyed islanders, they all leave on day $k+1$. Now, that implication by itself does not mean that for any $k$: $k$ blue-eyed islanders leave on day $k$. However, once we prove the base case of the inductive proof ... we know that for any $k$, all blue-eyed islanders leave exactly on day $k$, and not before.

OK, but as you ask as a follow-up question: why exactly does the inductive step hold? That is, even if we assume that $k$ blue-eyed islanders all leave exactly on day $k$, why would it folow that with $k+1$ blue-eyed islanders, they all leave on day $k+1$?

Good question, and as Henning points out in the comments, the induction is actually quite subtle. Maybe the most intuitive way to think about what is going on is that each day that passes, a little bit more common knowledge is obtained: by induction you can show that on at the start of day $k$ (and not before), it is common knowledge that there are at least $k$ blue-eyed islanders.

To explain what I mean by this: take the simpler example of having only $3$ blue-eyed islanders $A$, $B$, and $C$. Obviously, they all see at least $2$ other blue-eyed islanders, and so they all know that there is at least $1$ blue-eyed islander, before they are being told this. In fact, since they see at least $2$ they all know that everyone else sees at least $1$, and so they all know that they all know that there is at least $1$ blue-eyed islander.

However, on the first day, $A$ does not know that $B$ knows that $C$ knows that there is at least $1$ blue-eyed islander: any nesting of "knowing that" like that is more than $2$ levels deep is not true. And it is this nesting that the islanders require in order to perform their logic and realize that they have blue eyes. Indeed, when the nesting can go arbitrarily many levels deep, we speak of 'common knowledge'. This is what is lacking before the islanders are told that there is at least $1$ blue-eyed islander: before that is pointed out, it is not common knowledge that there is at least $1$ blue-eyed islanders, even though individually, they all know that this is true, and even know of each other that they know it is true.

However, when they are told that there is at least $1$ blue-eyed islander, it does become common knowledge: Now, you can go any number of levels deep, and end with "that there is at least $1$ blue-eyed islander"", and it will be true, exactly because this statement was made open to the public. Indeed, this is the very importance of the islanders being told, in public, that there is at least $1$ blue-eyed islander: they all already knew this, and they even already knew that they knew this, but it wasn't common knowledge until it was pointed out in public.

OK, so after they are told this, it has become common knowledge. However, on day $1$ it is still not common knowledge that there are at least $2$ blue-eyed islanders. Again, they all know that there are at least $2$, but it is not common knowledge. Indeed, $A$ does not know that $B$ knows that there are at least $2$.

However, when the next day comes and passes, and it is revealed that no one was able to figure out that they had blue eyes, it has become clear that there must be at least $2$ blue-eyed islanders, since if there was only $1$, then that $1$ would have left. And, since it is common knowledge that they are all perfect logicians (this is actually an important assumption that is often not explicitly pointed out in the typical statements of this puzzle ... saying that they are all perfect logicians is not enough: they need to know this of each other, and to sufficient depth ... again, basically it needs to be common knowledge), it has now become common knowledge that there at least $2$ blue-eyed islanders ... something that was not true on day $1$.

... and so on! Indeed, this is where the induction comes in: you can show that on day $k$, it has become common knowledge that there are at least $k$ blue-eyed islanders, and not before that day. And, to perform their logic that allows the $k$ blue-eyed islanders to conclude that they must have blue eyes, it must be common knowledge (you'd need, as Henning states, a logic that deals with these "know that nestings"). Going back to the example: On the start of day $2$, it is common knowledge to the $3$ blue-eyed islanders that there are at least $2$ blue-eyed islanders, but not that there are at least $3$ (that is, they still do not know whether they have blue eyes themselves). So, on day 2, they still do not leave. However, upon seeing that, it now has become common knowledge that there are at least $3$ blue-eyed islanders, or else the $2$ would have left on day $2$. And, obviously, since they only see $2$, they now know that they must be the third, and hence they all leave on day $3$.

OK, but how exactly is it that they don't leave before day $3$? For this, you really need to go into the logic that the islanders employ to figure out whether they have blue eyes or not. And again, let's stick with the simpler example of there being $3$ blue-eyed islanders. OK, so at the start of day $1$, after they are being told there is at least $1$ blue-eyed islander, $A$, $B$, and $C$ look around, and see $2$ other blue-eyed islanders. Now, they know that there is at least $1$ blue-eyed islander, and in fact this fact is common knowledge ... but there is otherwise nothing that would tell them that they have blue eyes themselves. OK, so day $1$ passes without any of them leaving. No real surprise there, I think.

OK, but now it is the start of day $2$. Now it is a lot more interesting. They know no one left, so maybe that allow them to infer that they do have blue eyes? Well, let's see. $A$ thinks to themselves: "Hmmm. I see that $B$ and $C$ have blue eyes. Why didnt they leave? Is it because I have blue eyes? That is, would they have left if I did not have blue eyes? Well, let's think. If I didn't have blue eyes, then on day $1$ $B$ and $C$ would each see $1$ other blue-eyed islander, and therefore they would have thought to themselves: "Hmmm. If I dont have blue eyes', then that other person is the only person with blue eyes, and so that person will leave today, seeing as that person would see no one with blue eyes, but knows there is at least one. So, let me see what happens to day: if that person leaves, then I'll know I didn;t have blue eyes. But if that person doesn;t leave, then I do have blue eyes". But of course, both $B$ and $C$ reasoned that way. That is, they both will be waiting out today, seeing what the other person does. In other words, even if I ($A$) dont have 'blue eyes, nothing will happen on day $1$. And, if I do have blue eyes, then certainly nothing would happen on day $1$ either, because now the others would see at least two people with blue eyes, and hence the fact that there is at least one person with blue eyes tells them absolutely nothing about the color of their own eyes. So, the fact that nothing happened on day $1$ is compatible with me having blue eyes or not. So, I don;t know whether I have blue eyes or not". And so: $A$ (and by symmetry, $B$ and $C$), will do nothing on day $2$ either.

OK, so that's just a concrete example showing that with $3$ islanders, nothing will happen on days $1$ and $2$.

More formally, though, the induction you have to (and can) prove is that the common knowledge that there are at least $k$ blue-eyed islanders is only obtained at the start of day $k$, and not before. And, you gop through the above kind of reasoning that without that common knowledge, any blue-eyed islander can show that the lack of any action on the preceding days is compatible with them having blue eyes or not, meaning that without the common knowledge, they still don;t know.

Bram28
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  • The induciton is pretty subtle, though, because the induction hypothesis needs to be not only "on a $k$-blue-eyes island all the blue eyes will leave on day $k$", but also "everybody knows that on a $k$-blue-eyes island they will leave on day $k$" and "everybody knows that everybody knows that ..." So actually our induction hypothesis needs to be $$ \forall m\ge 0:\quad \text{(everybody knows that)}^m \text{ on an island of $k$ blue eyes they all leave on day $k$}$$ and in each induction step we need to treat all $m$s togetherl. – hmakholm left over Monica Aug 18 '19 at 10:39
  • Since "everybody knows that" implies a quantifier, this means that we need to have some way to formalize a variable-height tower of quantifiers in order to express the solution ... or else start by inventing a logic that explicitly has an "everbody knows, and recursively so" modality, and then first convince ourselves that the rules of inference in our newly-invented logic actually correspond to a reasonable intuition about the islander puzzle. – hmakholm left over Monica Aug 18 '19 at 10:44
  • @Bram28 You say "Well, what follows is that with k+1 blue-eyed islanders, they all leave on day k+1" but why? How can we infer that k+1 islanders will not figure out in k days or maybe in (say) 7 days? – Marco Disce Aug 18 '19 at 15:45
  • @MarcoDisce Good question ... though it is a different question from your original one. Here, we are trying to prove an implication, i.e. we already assume that with $k$ blue-eyed islanders, they all leave exactly on day $k$, and now we have to show that therefore $k+1$ blue-eyed islanders leave exactly on day $k+1$. But yes, why exactly would that follow? (continued ...) – Bram28 Aug 19 '19 at 09:10
  • @Bram28 The point is: if we are not able to justify this implication how can we conclude that all the islanders will leave exactly on day 100? It seems the original question is still open – Marco Disce Aug 19 '19 at 09:41
  • @MarcoDisce I tried to provide some more explanation to my post. Hope it helps. And by the way: good for you to recognize that none of the logic here is straightforward ... because it isn't! After all is said and done, I myself am still confused by the fact that with $100$ blue-eyed islanders, they all pick their noses for $98$ days ... and they all know that they are going to pick their noses for $98$ days, only to spring into action on day $99$, seeing if anyone leaves or not. As you pointed out in your post: our intuitions just fail us on this one: we are not perfect cognizers! :) – Bram28 Aug 19 '19 at 09:51
  • @MarcoDisce And yes, I know that they key is the presence of absence of common knowledge that's the difference. From a purely logico-mathematicaI perspective I know that each day, they do learn something ... but with more than $3$ or $4$ blue-eyed islanders, it starts to get very hard to grasp what exactly that is other than the purely syntactical "Now they know that they all know that they all know that ..." ... it just loses its concrete and thus intuitive meaning. – Bram28 Aug 19 '19 at 09:53
  • I read the further explanation and I feel there is still something missing: when you say "And, obviously, since they only see 2, they now know that they must be the third, and hence they all leave on day 3 ... and not before." But why "not before"? You just provided a way of thinking that allows them to figure out in day 3 but you didn't prove that there is no other alternative way of thinking that could make them figure out earlier. Maybe it is "intuitive" that there is no faster way to reach the conclusion in the case of 3 islanders but what about the 100 islanders case? – Marco Disce Aug 19 '19 at 12:38
  • I also am not sure about whether they are actually getting new information as the day passes and nobody leaves or they are just able to exactly predict what will happen in the next 99 days (and hence the only new information they get is the last day outcome) – Marco Disce Aug 19 '19 at 12:41
  • @MarcoDisce You're quite right about the missing part ... thanks for pushing me! OK, I'll try to add some more .... – Bram28 Aug 19 '19 at 12:46
  • You correctly say that one islander must stay if (and only if) the information he has is compatible with both scenarios where he has blue eyes or he has not blue eyes. But in order to prove that a situation is compatible with both we need to be able to exclude any possible "fast" argument that could lead from the information to te conclusion about his eyes but it can be far from obvious. (continues...) – Marco Disce Aug 19 '19 at 14:02
  • (...continuing from above) The simple cases you consider (N=2,3,4) may seems obvious and intuitive because the available information is simple to understand (in night 1 it is "everybody knows that there is at least 1 blue-eyed) but when the information is much more complicated with repeatedly nested propositions we are not sure at all about what can NOT be derived by pure logic from that statements. – Marco Disce Aug 19 '19 at 14:02
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The islanders are logicians just like we are. So when the Oracle comes through, each of the blue-eyed islanders roll their eyes and say "Great, it's the blue-eyed islanders puzzle once again except in real life."

Excuse me, I mean each of the blue-eyed islanders thinks "I see 99 blue-eyed islanders. I know that they can all reason as well as I do, so they will find out that they have blue eyes and leave in 99 days." So nobody will leave for 99 days because nobody has a logical reason to. Only on the final day will the reasoners say "Why haven't they gone? Ah, it must be because they are also seeing 99 blue-eyed islanders, so I must leave with them tonight."

  • How do you know they have no reason to leave for 99 days? Why should a logician believe in the standard solution if he is not able to prove that nobody have a reason to leave before day 100? – Marco Disce Aug 17 '19 at 06:13
  • @MarcoDisce: A "perfect logician" would be able to predict what would happen on an island containing 99 blue-eyed people and some brown-eyed -- namely that all the blue-eyed people leave on day 99. For the induction step to work he doesn't need to predict that nothing happens before day 99 in that scenario. All he needs is (a) today is day 100, and (b) if the 99 blue-eyed people I see were the only ones they would all be gone by now, one way or another. – hmakholm left over Monica Aug 18 '19 at 10:27
  • @Henning but in order to say that the solution is "everybody will leave in day 100" we need to know that the islanders will actually stay in the island until day 100 i.e. we need to know that there is no possible alernative way for them to figure out their eye color before day 100, this doesn't seem obvious to me – Marco Disce Aug 18 '19 at 15:54