Proving the Collatz conjecture is equivalent to finding inconsistent constraints on the least counterexample $n$.
On the one hand, $n$ must be odd, say $2k+1$; on the other hand, if $3k+2$ were even we'd again have a contradiction, so $k$ is odd i.e. $n=2k+1=4l+3$ (say). Similarly, $\frac{3n+1}{2}=6l+5$ gets mapped to $9l+8$, which can't be divisible by $4$, so nor is $l$.
And we can go on like this constraining $n$ modulo powers of $2$, but it doesn't seem we can get the number of "legal" residue classes to go down from $1$ to $0$; indeed, it looks like we now have three options modulo $16$. Sure, we can probably constrain that further, but the problem doesn't seem to want to achieve a $o(m)$ upper bound on the legal number of modulo-$2^m$ residues classes. Managing something that's $o(2^m)$ just isn't enough.
It's not for want of trying. The Ultimate Challenge: The 3x+1 Problem (Lagarias 2010) is a book-length summary of where we're at so far, and why where we are doesn't look all that promising. You really should read that, in addition to any answers we manage here. He devotes chapters to such approaches as dynamical systems, Markov chains and ergodic theory, and stochastic models. My copy isn't searchable; I only wish I could find this quotation of it in context, to know why he says it:
this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach
of present day mathematics.