Problem: Simplify $$ \sum_{m=0}^k a^m m! (n-m)!$$ where $a$ is real and positive, $k \in \mathbb N$ and $n \in \mathbb N$ with $k \leq n$.
Upper bounds and lower bounds may also be useful. One example I have found is, assuming $a \neq 1$ and using $m! (n-m)! \leq n!$, $$ \sum_{m=0}^k a^m m!(n-m)! \leq n! \sum_{m=0}^k a^m = \frac{n! \left(1 - a^{k+1} \right)}{1-a},$$ but I am not satisfied with the accuracy of this bound.
I am aware of the somewhat related math.stackexchange.com question: Calculate $\sum\limits_{k=0}^{\infty}\frac{1}{{2k \choose k}}$