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How would you figure out the probability function of this scenario:

There are 9 pieces of paper with number 1-9 (one each) in a box. Select the paper 9 times (with replacement) then select a positive number x (can be anything). What is the probability that x is higher than the 3rd highest of 9 numbers selected.

I have some idea that the final probability function will look like a step function. It looks quite simple when I tried to characterize each combination. For example,

  • with probability $(1/9)^9$, all selected numbers are 1, then Pr(Win) = 1 if x > 1, = 3/10 if x = 1, = 0 if x < 1
  • with probability $(1/9)^9$, all but one selected numbers are 1, the rest is 2 then Pr(Win) = 1 if x > 1, = 3/10 if x = 1, = 0 if x < 1

and so on.

However, I am lost when trying to characterize them together (i.e., combining all those combination). Any comments, suggestions, hints, are greatly appreciated.

Thank you,

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