I've been making nocino, the infusion you're talking about, nearly every year for the last decade. Being at around 42˚N, I've wondered the same thing with regard to ripeness and location.
After some experimentation, I continue to pick them in the night of the 23rd of June or morning of the 24th. (In my understanding that is the traditional time -- it's the feast of Saint John. I've also decided to stick with the traditional 40 days of steeping.)
I have tried picking them at various later times, between a week and three, and been disappointed. (Unfortunately I've never been quite organized enough to get several batches in one year, so this isn't completely "scientific" data collection -- there's obviously confounding factors.) The flavor of nocino, when it's good, has tannins and bitterness balanced by woody flavor and some very bright, spicy and citrusy notes. Walnuts harvested too late are notably lacking the latter, and the result is flat and medicinal in an unpleasant way.
The best thing to do would be to observe the state of the walnuts yourself, if you have ready access to a walnut tree. It's easy to tell that they are going to be flavorful when steeped. Pulled right off the tree, the nuts will have a large amount of aromatic oil in their skins. Scratching the surface should release a burst of a lovely piney and citrusy smell. If that's lacking, it's too late. Cutting one open (be aware -- the juice from black walnuts will stain your hands and cutting surface), it should be around the hardness of balsa wood, with a consistent creamy color throughout, and a barely-visible "embryo" of the nutmeat in the middle (usually with some indentations in the very center). If the inner nut is clearly formed and distinguished from the rest of the interior, you're going to end up with a very bitter drink indeed.
I imagine that, wherever you are, you'll find that the walnuts meet the criteria right around the same June date, and so ultimately I'd recommend planning on harvesting sometime that week.
One other strong recommendation I should make is to get the walnuts into their steeping liquid as soon as possible after harvest. Ideally immediately. That spicy oil disappears very quickly, even tightly covered in the fridge.*
Two other tips: I've found that putting the jar out in strong, direct sunshine (if available) for the first two or three days makes a substantial positive difference in the extraction of the bright flavors that you want. Additionally, even though you take it off the walnuts after 40 days, letting it continue to mellow in a cool place for a few months does good things to the tannic element.
As a final fun addendum, if you have other nuts native to your area, you might try them when they're in a similar ripeness. I once tried hickory, with fairly good results.
*My batch two years ago was a disappointment because of the picked nuts spending a day in the fridge, despite using a tree that I knew produced very flavorful nuts.